Is the 2026 Bitcoin Moon Mission Cancelled?
Julio Moreno, the head of research at CryptoQuant, has some bad news for the “to the moon” crowd. He believes we are officially in a bear market and that the big 2026 bull run everyone is waiting for might not actually happen.
1. Where is the bottom?
Moreno thinks Bitcoin could drop to $56,000. Why that specific number? Because that is the “average cost” most people paid to get their Bitcoin. In the past, when the price hits this “break-even” point, people stop selling, which usually creates a floor for the price.
2. Why the “Hype Train” is slowing down
- The $102,000 “Wall”: In November, Bitcoin fell below its 1-year average price of $102k. Before, that number was a support level (a safety net); now, it’s a “resistance” level—basically a ceiling that will be very hard to crash through.
- Big Companies are ghosting: In 2024, many companies started putting Bitcoin on their balance sheets. But Moreno noticed a problem: most of them bought once or twice and then stopped. There isn’t a steady stream of new money coming from corporations anymore.
- Better options elsewhere: Investors are getting “distracted” by shiny traditional assets. Gold, big tech stocks (like Nvidia and Apple), and new Quantum Computing stocks are actually performing better than crypto right now.
- The “Money Printer” is off: Back in 2020-2021, the government pumped the economy with cash (stimulus). We don’t have that extra “free money” floating around this time to drive prices up.
3. What happens in 2026?
Moreno isn’t looking at “4-year cycles” anymore. He says it’s all about Demand Waves. If people aren’t excited to buy, the price won’t move.
His 2026 Forecast:
Bitcoin’s Limit: He sees BTC struggling to get past that $102,000 mark.
Cash is King: He thinks holding actual cash will be a better move than holding crypto in 2026.
Ethereum is stuck: He predicts ETH will just bounce around between $2,000 and $3,500 all year.